Redistricting may not boost either party. But it will impact the House.
The 119th U.S. House of Representatives has set records for dysfunction. This term in Congress has been marked by the longest government shutdowns in the nation’s history, the fewest votes cast in more than two decades (except for a pandemic-induced low in 2020), and surprisingly few bills have passed in an era of single-party control.
And the unusual arms race underway in mid-cycle redistricting is poised to make all of these problems worse.
Virginia and Florida are preparing to potentially change their house maps next week. They follow Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and California, all of which have already changed district boundaries, split districts and moved dozens of elected officials to make districts more winnable for Republicans or Democrats. Ohio and Utah also redrew their maps in the past year following litigation.
Why we wrote this
With Virginia and Florida poised to follow other states in mid-cycle redistricting next week, the partisan impact nationwide so far appears to be a failure. But by creating “safer” districts, the new maps could make the next House of Representatives even more polarized.
So far, it appears that the partisan impact of all the redistricting in these states – which represent 30% of all congressional districts, even without Virginia and Florida – will be a failure, with neither party coming out in a clear lead.
But the changes will likely have a serious impact on the House, as many districts’ red or blue hue deepens. With more districts classified as “safely” Republican or Democratic, these new maps appear likely to make the next House even more polarized, changing the criteria needed for candidates to win and further reducing incentives for bipartisan cooperation within the lower chamber of Congress.
“We live in a world with a hyperpolarized House, and it’s only going to get worse because of what’s happening,” says Michael Li, a senior attorney at the Brennan Center for Justice, where he focuses on redistricting. Winning most of these new districts simply means winning the Republican or Democratic primary, and “voters in both parties are more extreme,” he says. For members, “this will have an impact on what they are prepared to do [in Congress]. They will always be preoccupied with a major challenge.
This tit-for-tat across the country began in July 2025, when President Donald Trump suggested that Republicans could win five seats in Texas with “a very simple redraw,” and not wait for the normal redistricting process that occurs once every ten years after the U.S. Census. After resistance from Democratic state lawmakers, who temporarily fled Texas in protest, the new map was signed into law in late August. A few months later, California voted to redraw its map in favor of the Democrats and reverse the Republican Party’s gains in Texas. Other states followed, trying to give Republicans or Democrats an advantage in a deeply — but narrowly — divided U.S. House.
Next week, Virginia will vote on a Democratic effort to change the state’s current map (represented by six Democrats and five Republicans) to one that would favor Democrats 10 to 1. And Florida Republicans will have the opportunity to redraw their map (currently 28 Republicans to 20 Democrats) to one that will add up to five additional Republican-leaning seats.
Virginia’s redistricting referendum, scheduled for April 21, has already attracted a large number of voters to the polls. By the end of March, early voting had surpassed turnout in the 2025 governor’s race, setting a record for a non-presidential year.
In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session between April 20 and 24 to allow state lawmakers to draw new maps. But after Democrats unexpectedly flipped two state legislative seats in late March, one in the district that includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, some Republicans worried about a “dummy.” In a year when Democrats have the political wind at their backs, an overly aggressive Republican gerrymander could end up scattering GOP voters and potentially losing seats.
In theory, if Virginia and Florida adopt new maps, the partisan advantages will largely cancel out. But if one state moves forward and the other doesn’t, one party could end up with an advantage.
“It’s all just a question mark right now,” says Kyle Kondik, editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Even though the most partisan maps were presented as temporary in Virginia and California, it is difficult to imagine that the elected representatives in these new districts would later encourage a return to the old maps, he adds.
Last June, before Mr. Trump pressured Texas to redraw its map, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report calculated that there were 191 solid (that is, noncompetitive) Republican seats and 174 solid Democratic seats. Their most recent estimate shows 185 solid Republican seats and 189 solid Democratic seats. Sabato’s crystal ball presents a similar breakdown: What were 186 safe Republican seats and 169 safe Democratic seats before mid-cycle redistricting are now 187 safe Republican seats and 184 safe Democratic seats.
But while it may be close to a “tie” nationally, it’s “terrible” if you live in one of these redistricted states, says Mr. Li of the Brennan Center, because the new map is very unrepresentative of the actual makeup of the state. In Texas, for example, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won re-election in 2024 with 53% of the statewide vote, but Republicans could soon represent nearly 80% of Texans in the House.
In addition to the nation’s new slate of congressional districts, other factors could further polarize the House, such as a record number of retirements (some of which have been driven by frustrations over partisanship).
The U.S. Supreme Court is also preparing to issue a ruling that could upend the Voting Rights Act by summer, opening the door to further redistricting — although experts say that will likely come too late to impact the November midterm elections. But it could very well lead to big changes in the maps for 2028 – two years before the 2030 census is expected to bring seismic shifts in the distribution of seats among states.
“What is happening now portends a long series of representation struggles that will take place over the next 5 to 10 years,” says Li. “It is a battle within a larger representation war.”
