Republicans fret over Iowa as tough midterm races develop
DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance lands here Tuesday aiming to boost Rep. Zach Nunn’s re-election campaign — the latest development that underscores midterm jitters among Republicans in a state that has shifted to the right in recent years.
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In the Iowa gubernatorial race, the Republican Party faces a confusing June 2 primary election while the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, goes unopposed.
And in the battle for a free seat in the Senate, the main Senate Super PAC aligned with Republicans in Washington is preparing to pump nearly $30 million in advertising into a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in 18 years.
Vance’s appearance with Nunn, meanwhile, is tied to the Republican Party’s scramble to maintain control of the House, where the party has a slim majority heading into this fall’s elections. Nunn’s is one of two Republican seats in Iowa that could flip to Democrats this fall.
Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa GOP, said he believes Tuesday’s visit to the state will be the first of many for Vance, a likely candidate for the White House in 2028. Iowa is known for hosting early presidential caucuses.
“Iowa is in the crosshairs again this year,” Kaufmann said in an interview. “A wide open Senate seat, potentially three – right now it looks like two, but potentially three – competitive seats in Congress. The majorities in the Senate and the House run through Iowa. And we have an open race for governor.”
“I suspect we’re going to see a lot of national leaders traveling through the Hawkeye State,” Kaufmann added. “And the welcome mat is open.”
The Democrats also threw in the rug. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., a potential presidential candidate in 2028, visited last month to campaign with Nunn’s challenger, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
“There’s a lot more at stake here than Washington thinks,” Slotkin said in an interview at the time. “Eight years ago, it was a swing state, and I think a lot of people wrote it off. And I think that’s unwise.”
“Have the popcorn” in the gubernatorial primary
The Iowa gubernatorial primary has become a particular headache for Republicans.
Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, chose not to seek a third full term as governor.
Rep. Randy Feenstra has long been considered the favorite among the five GOP candidates. But Zach Lahn, a farmer and businessman, turned heads with a self-funded campaign and support from MAHA Action, a group aligned with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ““Make America Healthy Again.” Others in the race include former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.
President Donald Trump did not endorse any candidate, disappointing some Republicans who hoped his intervention could clarify the field of possibilities. If no candidate receives 35 percent of the vote in next month’s primary, a convention of rank-and-file delegates will determine the candidate. A recent headline in the Des Moines Register asked, “Does Randy Feenstra Have a Root Problem?”
“Randy Feenstra is the only Republican capable of defeating Rob Sand and keeping the governorship in conservative hands,” Feenstra spokesman Billy Fuerst wrote in a statement. “Iowans trust Randy because he gets results and keeps promises, like passing the Farm Bill and passing the largest tax cuts in Iowa and U.S. history.”
Other Republicans were reluctant to make predictions.
“I don’t know,” said state Rep. Ray Sorensen, a member of the state party’s central committee, when asked how he sees the primary going. “Take the popcorn and sit down.”
“The Republicans are trying to figure out who their guy is,” he added. “The Democrats already know that.”
Kaufmann and other GOP leaders recognize Sand’s strengths as a candidate, including fundraising from his wife’s wealthy family. But Kaufmann attributed much of the buzz around Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, to “hype.”
Sand, Kauffman added, presented himself as a moderate without taking positions that could either align him more closely with progressives or alienate them.
Kollin Crompton, a spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, which invests in competitive races, said: “That’s the downside: campaign as a moderate, govern as a liberal. It’s the same playbook Democrats used with Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Iowans won’t be fooled.”
Izzi Levy, a spokeswoman for the rival Democratic Governors Association, pointed to Sand’s advantage in not having to take arrows in a rancorous primary.
“As Rob Sand wins the support of all 99 Iowa counties and builds a winning coalition that spans the political spectrum,” Levy said, “all of his Republican opponents are trapped in an ugly primary that shows no signs of letting up as they collapse trying to tie themselves to Kim Reynolds, the nation’s most unpopular governor for two years running.”
A race for a Senate seat
Democrats aren’t so lucky in the battle for the Senate seat, which is up for grabs after Republican Joni Ernst decided not to run for office. Rep. Ashley Hinson is heavily favored to win the GOP nomination. But Democrats have a tough primary between State Rep. Josh Turek and State Sen. Zach Wahls.
The Turek-Wahls fight highlighted ideological tensions within the party. Wahls, who was endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, attempted to tie Turek to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. Schumer hasn’t supported the race, but there are signs he prefers Turek.
But signs that the general election will be competitive regardless of Democrats’ victory came last month from the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which committed at least $29 million to an Iowa ad blitz intended to help Hinson. Turek described the super PAC plans as a “rescue” effort for Hinson, betraying fears among national Republicans that the seat could be flipped.
That’s close to what the Senate Leadership Fund spent in Iowa in 2020, when Ernst won re-election by 6.5 percentage points amid nine-figure outside spending.
“Ashley Hinson is a formidable candidate and will be a vital part of the Republican majority in the Senate,” Chris Gustafson, communications director for the Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement. “We look forward to supporting her to ensure Iowa continues to be represented by a strong conservative senator.”
Iowa Democratic Party spokesman Drew Myers said Democrats would focus on Hinson’s support for Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran.
“Furthermore, his record of gutting Medicaid and supporting the overturning of Roe v. Wade has never been scrutinized at the state level,” Myers added. “Democrats’ recent special election victories show that Iowa is in play and that Iowa voters will reject Hinson’s failing record.”
Addie Lavis, Hinson’s deputy campaign manager, issued a statement noting the acrimonious battle on the Democratic side.
“We take nothing for granted, but watching the Democratic primary gives us all the confidence you could ask for,” Lavis said. “Ashley will beat whatever crazy liberal she chooses. Iowa is behind her – and she’s ready to fight and win.”
The battle for the House crosses Iowa
Vance’s appearance with Nunn here Tuesday speaks to the White House’s concerns about preserving the Republican majority in the House. Trump has expressed fears that a Democratic takeover could lead to another impeachment of him.
Republicans are playing defense in Nunn’s 3rd District, as well as the 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is expected to face a strong challenge from former state Rep. Christina Bohannan. Both districts are top targets of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Both parties are also closely monitoring the 2nd district, which Hinson leaves to run for Senate. The National Republican Congressional Committee included former state Rep. Joe Mitchell, who is seeking the GOP nomination, on its committee. “MAGA majority» program for candidates running for vacant or Democratic-held seats. The DCCC also considers it an in-game district. State Rep. Lindsay James is considered the leading candidate in the Democratic primary.
But it is the seat of Nunn which is considered the most vulnerable. The race has already turned sour, with Nunn’s allies attempting to turn one of Trone Garriott’s projected strengths — his work as a Lutheran minister — into a weakness.
Republicans, for example, highlighted her defense of a Wiccan prayer offered at the state Capitol in 2015. They also highlighted her first-person account of attending the wedding of two Satanists while training to be a pastor. Trone Garriott, speaking to the Des Moines Register, recalled his reluctance and “irritation” after being asked to choose scriptures for the ceremony. But, she concluded, “life, people and love are not perfect.”
A person familiar with Nunn’s campaign viewed a post claiming that “ordinary Iowans are getting a lecture” from Trone Garriott while “witches and Satanists are being defended in opinion pieces.”
Trone Garriott, in an interview, responded by criticizing Nunn for her vote for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“Politicians like Zach Nunn are attacking my faith and my ministry because I had the courage to speak out against them,” she said. “I had the courage to tell him how his decisions are hurting Iowans. He voted to take away health care from my neighbors and people are losing their doctors.”
Trone Garriott also mentioned Nunn’s support for Trump’s tariffs and war.
“These are things he needs to come forward on and listen to people,” she said, before noting his scheduled appearance with Vance. “Instead, he spends more time with DC politicians.”
