Republicans took a political hit in the shutdown. How long will it last?
As the government shutdown nears an end, it is clear that Republicans are in a worse political situation than when they started. The question is whether this will prove temporary – as has been the case in previous funding confrontations – or whether the political atmosphere has been restored in a way that will endure until next year’s midterm elections.
As the six-week shutdown unfolded, President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to the lowest point of his second term, with a majority of voters placing the blame on him and congressional Republicans. Democrats took a large lead in the congressional wildcard vote — 8 points in our NBC News poll, a level last seen heading into the 2018 midterm “blue wave.”
And then there was last Tuesday, when Democrats recorded an unexpected landslide in New Jersey, a state where both parties viewed the gubernatorial race as competitive and where recent elections suggested Republican momentum. Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s victory was so stunning that it lifted a slew of sagging Democrats and gave the party its largest majority in the state Assembly in a half-century. The Democratic rout was even greater in Virginia: the party’s deeply flawed nominee for attorney general, Jay Jones, easily followed in the footsteps of Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger.
An unpopular president, a wide generic voting gap and off-year election results like this are all warning signs of a midterm debacle for Republicans.
But they’ve been here before. And during the two previous shutdowns, Republicans saw their public position give way, only to eventually recover.
This was the case during President Barack Obama’s second term, when a dispute over funding for Obamacare precipitated a government shutdown that began October 1, 2013, and lasted several weeks.
Like now, the public has squarely aligned itself against the GOP. An NBC News poll at the time showed voters blaming Obama’s congressional Republicans by a 22-point margin. Like now, the Republicans suddenly found themselves 8 points behind in the generic ballot. And like today, that year’s election had apparent consequences, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe narrowly defeating Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race for Virginia governor.
Cuccinelli had responsibilities as a candidate, but 2013 remains the drama of the shutdown of late 1995, a collision between the Republican Congress, led by Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., and President Bill Clinton. And the public’s verdict was clear: They blamed the Republican Party.
The political legacy of this 1995 closure is complex. Clinton’s standing improved, while Gingrich’s fell to a level from which he never fully recovered. It also established a framework for Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign, when he presented himself as a middle bulwark against the ideological fervor of congressional Republicans and Gingrich himself. Clinton ended up victorious over Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas in one of the least suspenseful presidential campaigns in modern times.
But it’s important to note that most of the political benefits Clinton reaped did not extend to the rest of her party. During the shutdown, Democrats gained a sizable lead in the congressional wildcard vote, but the gap narrowed again in early 1996. It fluctuated throughout the year, but ultimately the Republicans lost only four seats in the House — even though Clinton won the popular vote by 8 points. The 1996 election marked the first time since 1928 that a Republican majority in the House lasted more than a single term.
As the current shutdown appears to be coming to an end, Republicans are hoping that over the next month polls will return to pre-shutdown levels, meaning an increase in Trump’s approval rating and a tightening of the wildcard poll.
The GOP would still face serious headwinds in 2026, with the economy remaining a top concern among voters and Trump receiving poor marks for his handling of the situation (not to mention the president’s party’s history of struggles in the midterms).
Still, thanks to a combination of the Democratic Party’s own image problem and the new congressional maps that Republicans are drawing in some states, it’s conceivable that they have a chance to fight back.
But this is only if the stopping effect turns out to be temporary. If the political environment stays this way – or gets worse – Republicans could face erasure.
