There’s Another Big Reason Trump Is Stuck in the Gulf

You’ve probably seen or heard about President Trump’s early morning threat to destroy Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure and bridges if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. To quote him: “Open the fucking straits, you crazy bastards, or you will live in hell – JUST LOOK. Praise be to Allah.” (This is not my main summary. It is a quote.) I will put aside that this seems to constitute war crimes as a matter of course. The man goes overnight from “the strait doesn’t matter” to (alternatively) “it’s not our problem/it’ll open itself” to “I’ll give you two fucking days or you’ll live in hell.” Of course, he then repeatedly “postponed” the day of destruction after encouraging talks with Iranian leaders, talks which we learn days later never took place. But now, he said, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all in one, in Iran.” » (This time, I really, really mean it!)

In other words, talk like a crazy person and carry a very small stick. He thinks these outbursts make him seem stronger, but each threat and pushback makes him seem weaker and more clearly unable to control the situation. These are the words of a man who has spent his life TACOing or doing stupid things to get out of trouble, suddenly bumping into an immovable object and at a time when he already seems to be under a mixture of extreme psychological tension and more general senescent decompensation.

There is another aspect of this equation that I think has not received enough attention. On March 24, the New York Times published a story that Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, told President Trump that he must finish the job, toppling the Iranian regime or weakening it to the point where it cannot threaten anyone – the second condition likely impossible without the first. As the Times puts it (emphasis added), “Prince Mohammed told Mr. Trump that he must pushing for the destruction of the hard-line Iranian government.

Publishing a story like this in the Times is as clear and bold a message as a Saudi leader can send to the U.S. government without having to buy a 30-second national ad campaign. I interpret this as him saying: just to make sure the message gets across or in case you get the message and don’t share it with your people. Trump destroyed a hornet’s nest and MBS says Trump must now remove the nest. We cannot leave it in place. He must overthrow or weaken the Iranian regime. The status quo is unacceptable, no matter what nonsense Trump may say at the time that the Straits are not his problem.

The common perception in the United States is that President Trump either talked his way into this mess or was pushed by Benjamin Netanyahu. There is a little truth in the second idea and a lot in the first. But it is MBS and the leader of the United Arab Emirates, as well as other Gulf princes, who are actually Trump’s men, much more than Benjamin Netanyahu. The way the Trump White House has integrated U.S. security, money, and geopolitics runs much deeper. And, critically and relatedlythe Trump family’s business ties to them run infinitely deeper.

I’m not saying that Trump won’t follow through on these threats, although I think he’s likely to cave in again. This means that this war is likely to last much longer than most people think. Ultimately, I don’t think Trump can leave, even if he desperately wants to. It is in this context that we must observe these increasing angry tweets.