Trump Doesn’t Care About the Size of a Dem House Majority

There is a dimension to the latest developments in the redistricting wars that is not exactly hidden but is not getting the attention it should. Simply put, Donald Trump’s interests are rapidly drifting away from those of his House Republicans.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis just introduced a new Florida House map that purports to give Republicans four additional seats in November. But Florida’s incumbents are more than scared. They don’t like it. As you know, the more aggressively you gerrymander a state, the more you do more than create more seats for your party. You also create a certain level of risk that this card will amplify an election wave into a full-blown explosion. Reduce your safe seat margin enough to create safer or more favorable seats and all those existing seats become a little more vulnerable. This is only a real danger during an electoral wave. But that’s precisely what 2026 looks like.

This is just basic math. And this danger is still there. But it takes on new importance because of Donald Trump’s personalist perspective on all politics. Simply put, the difference between a 10-seat Democratic majority in 2027 and a 40-seat majority is basically meaningless to Donald Trump. This obviously means a lot to the thirty additional Republicans who lose their seats.

This changes the stakes quite dramatically. I think a Democratic House is almost a certainty next year. I strongly suspect that most House Republicans know this too. But let’s say, for the sake of argument, that these redistricting measures increase the chances of holding the House by 10 or 20 percent. Those are actually good odds if the downsides don’t matter to you — which is not the case for Trump.

Florida is likely the last big bite of that apple for this cycle, although perhaps today’s VRA gutting decision will open up other possibilities. Most of these activities are therefore locked. There is nothing the current incumbents can do about it. But still keep a close eye on this dynamic.