Israel and Turkey on collision course after Ankara severs ties

Turkey completely suspends trade and closes the airspace with Israel, a break in the war which, analysts, could fuel dangerous climbing.

Turkey’s full suspension of Economic and Trade Relations With Israel, coupled with the closure of its airspace, marks an unprecedented stopover that could have far-reaching consequences, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen-Yanarocak of Tel Aviv University Warned in an interview with Maariv.

“A country will completely reduce its economic and commercial relations with another and closes its airspace to its planes, only in wartime,” said Cohen Yanarocak. “This decision is unprecedented, removes mutual dependence and could lead to strategic escalation.”

The rupture followed the announcement of the Minister of Turkish Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan earlier this week. According to Cohen-Yanarocak, deterioration has been built for months. “It didn’t surprise me. I had been waiting for these progressive stages for a long time,” he said, pointing to previous maritime sanctions. “As Israel declared its intention to extend the military operation to Gaza, they made the decision on the same day to impose maritime sanctions.”

The Israeli forces exposing surveillance systems that would have been sold to Damascus by Turkey gave Ankara the trigger he needed. “You could say that it should happen, but they were waiting for a specific incident to play this card,” he noted.

Danger for the economy, tourism

Although immediate disturbances are logistical, thefts to Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan will now take more time and Turkish airlines will be prohibited from Israeli airspace, the real danger is strategic.

“All the mutual dependence between the two countries disappears, and once there is no dependence, it becomes very dangerous because there is nothing to lose,” warned Cohen Yanarocak. “If there is an economy, if there is tourism, if there is relationships – then there is something to lose, and therefore each game can ultimately think twice.”

Without tourism, trade or even the flight corridors, he warned: “natural restraint disappears”, paving the way to “more dramatic and undesirable stairs”.

The break also reflects the wider ambitions of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Erdogan wants to restore past glory to make Turkey the strongest Muslim state,” said Cohen Yanarocak. “And when there is a Muslim entity, like Gaza, which is in serious difficulty, the Turkish chief considers himself as the chief of all Sunni Muslims.”

However, Erdogan moves cautiously. “He does not do it overnight, but rather progressive measures,” said the analyst, stressing that this “corresponds to his global vision”.

The chances of repairing the links are soon slim. “As long as we do not see the end of the war, I don’t think it is possible to put the genius back in the bottle,” said Cohen Yanarocak. “On paper, it can be done, but there is a political price.”

Turkey “collecting the major political capital of the war in Gaza,” he added, the overturning course will be increasingly difficult. What started as a temporary demonstration, he concluded, has become “a structural change in relations, with consequences that will extend far beyond the end of the current war”.